Published: June 2006

Study: One in four undocumented residents would be illegal under Senate bill

The Center for Immigration Studies released a report on June 14, 2006 that finds, based on the experience of the 1986 amnesty, that nearly 9.9 undocumented immigrants will receive amnesty under the recently passed Senate Hagel-Martinez bill. That is, they will legalize and can apply for permanent residence and citizenship. As in 1986, we also expect that one-fourth, or 2.6 million, will receive amnesty fraudulently. The bill will also allow an estimated 4.5 million family members of illegal aliens currently living abroad to join their legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million beneficiaries.

The Center, which describes its interest as "animated by a pro-immigrant, low-immigration vision which seeks fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted, finds in its new report, "Amnesty Under Hagel-Martinez: An Estimate of How Many Will Legalize If S-2611 Becomes Law":

• Based on the 1986 amnesty, we estimate that slightly over 70 percent, or 7.4 million, of the 10.2 million illegals eligible for the three amnesties in Hagel-Martinez will come forward and receive amnesty legitimately. That is, they will gain legal status allowing them to live and work in the United States and eventually apply for permanent residence and then citizenship.
• We also estimate that, as in 1986, there will be one fraudulent amnesty for every three legitimate ones (2.6 million) for a total of 9.9 million amnesty beneficiaries.
• In addition to the amnesty beneficiaries, the bill will allow an estimated 4.5 million family members currently living abroad to join their newly legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million people who will benefit from the bill’s amnesty provisions.
• Our assumption that 70 percent of illegals who will come forward as in 1986 is conservative because, unlike the last legalization, illegals now know that amnesties are real and not a ruse by the government to deport them. Moreover, increased border enforcement has made illegal crossing more difficult, making legalization a more attractive option.
• Our estimate of 2.6 million fraudulent amnesties, based on 1986, is also conservative because the false document industry is now more developed. Moreover, the immigration bureaucracy already has a severe fraud problem, according to the Government Accountability Office. As its workload mushrooms with amnesty, fraud will become even more difficult to detect.
• Of the 14.4 million illegals and their family members who will receive amnesty, we estimate that 13.5 million will eventually become permanent residents, which means they can stay as along as they wish and apply for citizenship. Deaths and out- migration account for the balance of the 14.4 million.
• The 13.5 million illegal aliens and their family members who are expected to receive permanent residence under the Senate plan is equal to all of the legal immigration that took place between 1990 and 2005, excluding those who were part of the 1986 amnesty.
• The above estimates do not include the bill’s very large increases in future legal immigration, which is expected to double or even triple the number of people who will receive permanent residence from 1 million a year under current law.
• In addition to the amnesty and the increases in future legal immigration, there is also the question of future illegal immigration. A recent Congressional Budget Office report projected that if Hagel-Martinez becomes law nearly 8 million new illegal immigrants would enter the country by 2016.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit research organization founded in 1985. It is the nation's only think tank devoted exclusively to research and policy analysis of the economic, social, demographic, fiscal, and other impacts of immigration on the United States. The Center's mission is to expand the base of public knowledge and understanding of the need for an immigration policy that gives first concern to the broad national interest.

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The Center for Immigration Studies

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